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Research notes and market intelligence

A sample of the analysis behind our own capital and our special projects. Full notes are shared directly with our partners, consistent with our discretion policy.

Macro ResearchJul 2026

Rate divergence and the return of carry: what's actually priced in

A read on where policy paths and market pricing have quietly decoupled — and what that gap implies for positioning.

Shared with our partners
Sector CoverageJun 2026

Grid capacity is the real constraint on the AI buildout

Compute is not the bottleneck the market thinks it is. Power interconnection queues are — and few models price that in.

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Special Situations NoteJun 2026

What complex stakeholder environments have in common across three jurisdictions

Patterns from special projects across three jurisdictions — where institutional coordination breaks down, and why.

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Sovereign CoverageMay 2026

What sovereign spreads are missing about fiscal dominance

A review of where sovereign credit pricing still assumes central bank independence that no longer fully holds.

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GovernanceMay 2026

Board oversight of AI-driven decisions is still mostly theater

A governance framework for boards that need to sign off on decisions they can no longer fully audit.

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Macro ResearchApr 2026

Private credit's duration mismatch is the quiet risk of this cycle

Where evergreen fund structures and underlying asset duration have drifted furthest apart — and what that implies.

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